The period from August through December in US stock markets is characterized by distinct cyclical patterns that have been observed over many years. The typical sell-off from August through October, driven by factors such as portfolio rebalancing, mutual fund activity, and tax positioning, often sets the stage for a year-end rally that can extend into the new year. While these patterns provide a general framework for understanding market behavior, it's crucial for investors to remain adaptable and consider the unique circumstances of each year, including the potential impact of significant events such as contentious elections. By understanding these cyclical trends and the factors that influence them, investors can better navigate the complexities of the market and make more informed decisions in their long-term investment strategies.
As summer winds down and investors return from vacations, market activity tends to pick up in August. This increased participation often coincides with a period of heightened volatility and selling pressure. Several factors contribute to this phenomenon. First, many institutional investors reassess their portfolios and begin positioning for the final quarter of the year. This can lead to profit-taking in stocks that have performed well during the first half of the year, as well as the trimming of underperforming positions.
September has historically been the weakest month for US stocks, with the S&P 500 averaging a decline of approximately 1% since 1950. This trend is often attributed to a combination of factors, including the aforementioned portfolio rebalancing, as well as the release of third-quarter earnings guidance. Companies may use this time to revise their full-year forecasts, potentially leading to disappointment among investors and triggering sell-offs in individual stocks or entire sectors.
October is known for its volatility, with some of the most significant market crashes occurring during this month, including the infamous Black Monday of 1987 and the sharp declines during the 2008 financial crisis. However, October is also often referred to as a "bear killer" month, as it frequently marks the end of market downturns and the beginning of recovery rallies.
The sell-off period from August through October is further influenced by mutual fund selling. Many mutual funds have fiscal years that end in October, prompting portfolio managers to engage in "window dressing" – the practice of selling losing positions and purchasing better-performing stocks to improve the appearance of their holdings before reporting to shareholders. This activity can exacerbate market volatility and contribute to the overall downward pressure on stocks during this period.
As October draws to a close, the market often begins to show signs of recovery, setting the stage for the year-end rally. This phenomenon, commonly known as the "Santa Claus rally," typically starts in late October or early November and extends through the end of the year, sometimes continuing into January of the following year. Several factors contribute to this positive market sentiment.
Significant drivers of the year-end rally include tax positioning, fund manager repositioning, . Investors and fund managers engage in tax-loss harvesting, selling losing positions to offset capital gains and reduce their tax liability. This selling pressure often peaks in October, creating opportunities for bargain hunters to scoop up oversold stocks at attractive valuations. As November progresses, much of this tax-related selling subsides, allowing the market to recover and potentially rally.
It's important to note that while these cyclical patterns are observed on average, they are not guaranteed to occur every year. External factors, such as geopolitical events, economic conditions, and unexpected news, can disrupt or amplify these trends.
In recent years, the impact of contentious US elections on market behavior has become increasingly significant. The 2020 presidential election, often described as one of the most divisive in US history, demonstrated how political uncertainty can influence market volatility. As we approach future election cycles, investors may need to factor in the potential for increased market turbulence during the August to October period, particularly in election years.
The information contained in this Higgins Capital communication is provided for information purposes and is not a solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
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