The next fifteen years promise a rollercoaster ride for investors as the extreme distortions of the past are unwound. Passively waiting for the wave to wash over us and then scrambling for higher ground is a high-risk strategy. Instead, investors need to consider responses tailored to their own unique circumstances, as no single approach fits all. The divide between what Americans want and what is realistic is stark. Surveys show the average American feels they need to earn over $180,000 to live comfortably, yet only 6% of U.S. adults make $186,000 or more, with median family income much lower. Households earning $180,000 even feel the need to earn $300,000 to be comfortable.
Living well on less than $30,000 a year demands significant sacrifices, often requiring a move to lower-cost rural areas, paying off debt, performing one’s own repairs, and growing some of one’s own food. Transitioning from consumer to producer takes time, effort, and sacrifice, but many have already fashioned a low-cost, resilient lifestyle. For example, some have reported finding community in rural locales where they share and work with like-minded individuals. The current zeitgeist, however, often makes these sacrifices seem impossible, especially in cities where starter homes can cost at least $1 million.
The U.S. hasn’t experienced a "real recession" since 1981-82, as subsequent recessions have been brief due to unprecedented bailouts and stimulus. The returns on these measures have diminished, and expecting the same tricks to work like magic again is unrealistic. We may be heading for a period more akin to 1973, with extended turmoil and persistent inflation. This calls for common-sense frugality: waste nothing, need less, and get serious about your contingency plans.
Safe havens for capital are hard to find, as every asset tends to go down when massive credit-asset bubbles pop. Traditional safe-haven asset classes have already been front-run by smart money, and assets can drop to levels considered impossible at the top of the bubble. Patience tends to pay off as bubbles pop, but history shows that bubbles take a few years to fully deflate. Meanwhile, earning 4% on cash looks appealing compared to losing 40% in the falling knife game of asset bubbles.
Cash remains king in asset-bubble deflations because it loses less value compared to other assets exposed to debt pay-downs and leveraged unwinds. The risks of waiting for the bubble to deflate are lower compared to the risks of rotating in and out of deflating assets ahead of bots and smart money. Wall Street never recommends frugally piling up cash because it generates no income for them, but staying out of the casino and waiting for the bottom is a sound strategy.
The real value of assets lies in their use, not their market price. Whether a house is worth $1,000 or $1 million, it still provides shelter; if a homestead produces 1,000 pounds of food a year, its value is in the food, not the land price. This perspective emphasizes the importance of health as the only real wealth since even $100 million cannot restore lost health.
Surviving volatility is challenging, and few manage to catch the highs and lows consistently. Being wary of strong buys during bubbles is prudent, as the eventual bottom often surprises. Opportunities lie ahead, but they require a lean, frugal lifestyle, debt payoff, cash savings, and solid contingency plans. Learning to increase self-reliance and lowering exposure to systemic risks will be crucial. Turn a deaf ear to market touts and avoid the casino mindset.
The information contained in this Higgins Capital communication is provided for information purposes and is not a solicitation or offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Past performance does not guarantee future results.